One question: "Is past performance ... a very good indicator of future success."?
Intuitively, that makes sense. But with 10+ year funding cycles, it's difficult to say definitively.
Counterpoints:
1. Emerging venture fund managers often have the best returns: "First-time managers outperformed experienced managers for 2006-2014 vintage venture capital funds"
• The median net IRR for 2006-2014 vintage first-time venture capital funds (+12.9%) sits a full 3% points higher than that of experienced managers (+9.9%), with risk levels (measured by standard deviation of net IRR) at 19.1% and 15.6% respectively. 13 of 16 years measured from 2000-2016, first time fund managers performed better, on average, than their older vintage counterparts. See https://docs.preqin.com/reports/Preqin-Special-Report-Up-and-Away-Launching-First-Time-Venture-Capital-Fund-November-2017.pdf
2. Also, how long a manager is in the VC game does not seem to correlate with better returns:
Love the format!
One question: "Is past performance ... a very good indicator of future success."?
Intuitively, that makes sense. But with 10+ year funding cycles, it's difficult to say definitively.
Counterpoints:
1. Emerging venture fund managers often have the best returns: "First-time managers outperformed experienced managers for 2006-2014 vintage venture capital funds"
• The median net IRR for 2006-2014 vintage first-time venture capital funds (+12.9%) sits a full 3% points higher than that of experienced managers (+9.9%), with risk levels (measured by standard deviation of net IRR) at 19.1% and 15.6% respectively. 13 of 16 years measured from 2000-2016, first time fund managers performed better, on average, than their older vintage counterparts. See https://docs.preqin.com/reports/Preqin-Special-Report-Up-and-Away-Launching-First-Time-Venture-Capital-Fund-November-2017.pdf
2. Also, how long a manager is in the VC game does not seem to correlate with better returns:
https://twitter.com/ChrisHarveyEsq/status/1264410418929258496?s=20
Am I missing anything?