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David Wilkens's avatar

Good article. I think something to watch is the rise of small/medium hybrid FoFs who will professionalize the co-invest. Hunter Walk recently posted reasons that funds under $100m shouldn't bother investing pro-rata. He is absolutely right. Data from AngelList and talks given by Abe Othman over the last couple/few years has pointed to this inconvenient fact. Look for Abe's talk comparing first check only versus pro-rata always strategies via Monte Carlo simulation. There is a nuance in their data.

The hybrids and others who catch on will realize LPs who invest broadly across the best small GPs will have a large opportunity set with which to pick into follow-on. As you say,the large firms will battle tooth and nail to cut back pro-rata rights in order to gobble allocations for themselves, but the best small GPs will retain the right because of the founder relationships they have built. These LPs are looking at these portfolios and building a view early so that their minds are better prepared when the time comes.

Avoiding pro-rata decisions avoids the agency issues that GPs face when they do follow on and allows them to focus on making first check investments only. By extension this builds a better opportunity set for their LPs. I see this kind of strategy as a counterpositioning for those who lack access to the best series A/B investors. It's a feature of this new cycle and with the rise of a new generation of GPs However, these LPs need to stay smallish in order to be nimble.

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